Analyst Razuvaev: “The Central Bank’s high key rate protects the poor from inflation”

The gap between general inflation and the growth of prices for goods and services from the basket for low-income people ("inflation for the poor") has increased by more than one and a half times. This conclusion can be drawn from the review published this week by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF). In March, "inflation for the poor" was 17%, and general inflation, according to Rosstat, was 10.34%.

At the same time, the Bank of Russia has been keeping the rate at 21% for more than six months, each time explaining the rigidity of its policy by the continuing rise in prices. Alexander Razuvaev, a member of the Supervisory Board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers, told MK how to understand the regulator's actions.

- The Bank of Russia last Friday kept the key rate at 21%, but softened the signal. What does this mean?

- This is a signal that the regulator may have a wider choice at the next meetings. The dynamics of lending and budget expenditures are becoming more balanced, and the growth of the money supply is starting to slow down. The ruble has strengthened by more than 20% since the end of last year. Let me remind you that at the end of December, the entire press wrote that by the end of 2024, the dollar exchange rate had grown by 13.4%, exceeding 101 rubles. And now the official exchange rate of the American currency is around 82 rubles. And this strengthening occurred despite the fall in oil prices.

- In principle, to what extent does the price of oil influence the ruble?

- This week, let me remind you, the price of a barrel of Brent oil reached $66.2, but back in January it was trading around the $80 mark. The price of the Russian export grade Urals is determined on the basis of this grade, which has already fallen by almost a quarter since the beginning of the year against the backdrop of trade wars. After US President Donald Trump's statement about his desire to introduce large-scale trade duties against almost all countries of the world in early April, a barrel of Urals fell to $50, which is already $20 below the level set in the federal budget for 2025. Then, of course, there was a correction and prices for hydrocarbon raw materials rose slightly. However, this whole situation has already caused concern among the "powers that be." This week, at an expanded meeting of the Ministry of Finance, the head of the department Anton Siluanov said that the current cutoff price in the budget rule, set at $60 per barrel, does not meet the challenges of the time, so it needs to be fine-tuned to minimize external risks and increase the stability of the national financial system. Nevertheless, the ruble is doing well and the Central Bank has a lot to do with it.

- Meanwhile, inflation is still high. In March, it was 10.34% on an annualized basis. This is more than a year ago, and significantly higher than the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's target of 4%. It turns out that the regulator's tightening of policy, which has been going on for almost a year and a half, of which the rate has been at 21% for the last six months, is still being felt weakly?

- Let's clarify this. We have a social state, so it's high time to remember the poor. "Inflation for the poor" is 17% and is more than 1.5 times higher than the general inflation, which Rosstat recorded in March at 10.34%. As experts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) note, this is all because food products are becoming more expensive first and foremost - take potatoes with their price increase of 150%. And low-income Russians spend about half of all their income on food. At the same time, just a few months ago, inflation for the poor was "only" 15%. Agree, the delta of 21% - 10.34% and 21% - 17% are two very big differences. At the same time, the poor also try to put aside for a "rainy day", albeit modest savings, and they should not depreciate from inflation. So what's with the deposits?

- In this area, everything is fine so far. Their profitability, although continuing to adjust, still remains high. Thus, according to the Finuslugi service, this week the average rate in the top 20 banks for three-month deposits was 19.82%, for six-month savings - 19.68% and 18.64% for deposits for a term of one year.

- In other words, the yield on savings is still almost twice the official inflation rate. But let me remind you that the maximum deposit rates were last on a plateau at the beginning of 2024 and were at 15%, while the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was 1% higher than this value, i.e. 16%. However, in late autumn, banks significantly raised deposit rates above the regulator's rate, expecting it to increase in December, which did not happen. Probably, the current situation is close to normal, when rates on bank deposits are slightly lower than the key rate. That is, the poor, if they put money in a bank deposit, not only save their savings, but can also afford to increase them a little. It turns out that the social monetary policy of the Bank of Russia is aimed at supporting all Russians, including the poor, who need help first and foremost.

- But the poor live from paycheck to paycheck or from pension to pension. Do they have the opportunity to make deposits in banks?

- Let me remind you that the total volume of population deposits in banks as of February 1, 2025 amounted to almost 60 trillion rubles. It is clear that most of them are small deposits, but their profitability is actually guaranteed by the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.